Due to some technical problem yesterday's Daily View could not be published. Apologies for inconvenience.
Trend, Momentum, and S/R Levels
Trend: Down since Sep 2013.
Mode: Cyclic, but one Cycle Indicator has indicated beginning of down trending prices which has to be confirmed by a daily major cycle.
Review of previous Analysis:
Trading recommendation – Not given
S/R Levels – 100% Accurate
Direction View - Correct
Pullback was expected on 16th and it took place and fizzeled out at mentioned resistance level of 80.86. Strong chance of spike in any direction was mentioned, which occured on 17th below 80.45 - which was repeatedly mentioned as a crucial level. Overall downtrend is in line with expectation. On 15th it was mentioned that "If price remains below 80.45, then 79.8 is possible in few days" - and DX closed yesterday at 79.718!
Cycle Analysis: A minor cycle has reached near its bottom and prices can bounce along with it. Daily major cycle is up and prices can see 82 if they cross major hurdles of 80.17 - 80.45 - 80.9.
• Sell Signal: Since cycles are on downside and there is warning of down trending, so more downside may be expected. Sell signals may take few days as short term cycle is may rise from bottom.
• Buy Signal: Pullback can be expected today.
Conventional Technical Analysis:
Bearish setups –
1. Price is below 38.2% retracement of 80.9
2. Price is below the last support of the speed resistance lines
3. Price failed to close above peak of 80.69 (point ‘a’ closing price) at its next peak of point ‘c’.
Bullish setups –
1. The momentum indicator (bottom panel), had given a clear re-accumulation buy signal at bottom point ‘b’, where the indicator had a higher bottom compared to its previous bottom. The re-accumulation is shown by green rising arrow in indicator panel and blue declining arrow in price plot. But there are also indications that the effect of this bullish signal is already over.
Though there are more bearish indications, but since momentum and cycles are indicating probability of a pullback so caution should be adopted in trading. If price remains below 80.17, then expect more downside to 79. Avoid longs.
Key S/R Levels:
• Resistance Levels: 80.18 - 80.45– 80.9– 81 – 81.2 – 82 – 82.8
• Support Levels: 79.85 – 79 – 77
Risk: Price may continue to rise above first resistance against its downtrend.
Recommendation: More indications are for a downside, especially if prices remain below 80.17. Sell on rise near 80.1 with SL 80.2 and targets 79.9/ 79.5/79.
Trend, Momentum, and S/R Levels
Trend: Down since Sep 2013.
Mode: Cyclic, but one Cycle Indicator has indicated beginning of down trending prices which has to be confirmed by a daily major cycle.
Review of previous Analysis:
Trading recommendation – Not given
S/R Levels – 100% Accurate
Direction View - Correct
Pullback was expected on 16th and it took place and fizzeled out at mentioned resistance level of 80.86. Strong chance of spike in any direction was mentioned, which occured on 17th below 80.45 - which was repeatedly mentioned as a crucial level. Overall downtrend is in line with expectation. On 15th it was mentioned that "If price remains below 80.45, then 79.8 is possible in few days" - and DX closed yesterday at 79.718!
Cycle Analysis: A minor cycle has reached near its bottom and prices can bounce along with it. Daily major cycle is up and prices can see 82 if they cross major hurdles of 80.17 - 80.45 - 80.9.
• Sell Signal: Since cycles are on downside and there is warning of down trending, so more downside may be expected. Sell signals may take few days as short term cycle is may rise from bottom.
• Buy Signal: Pullback can be expected today.
Conventional Technical Analysis:
Bearish setups –
1. Price is below 38.2% retracement of 80.9
2. Price is below the last support of the speed resistance lines
3. Price failed to close above peak of 80.69 (point ‘a’ closing price) at its next peak of point ‘c’.
Bullish setups –
1. The momentum indicator (bottom panel), had given a clear re-accumulation buy signal at bottom point ‘b’, where the indicator had a higher bottom compared to its previous bottom. The re-accumulation is shown by green rising arrow in indicator panel and blue declining arrow in price plot. But there are also indications that the effect of this bullish signal is already over.
Though there are more bearish indications, but since momentum and cycles are indicating probability of a pullback so caution should be adopted in trading. If price remains below 80.17, then expect more downside to 79. Avoid longs.
Key S/R Levels:
• Resistance Levels: 80.18 - 80.45– 80.9– 81 – 81.2 – 82 – 82.8
• Support Levels: 79.85 – 79 – 77
Risk: Price may continue to rise above first resistance against its downtrend.
Recommendation: More indications are for a downside, especially if prices remain below 80.17. Sell on rise near 80.1 with SL 80.2 and targets 79.9/ 79.5/79.
No comments :
Post a Comment