Growth Opportunities Portfolio - Automotive Sector

Almost 3 billion people, mostly from emerging markets – more than 40% of today’s population – will join the middle class by 2050. This will increase the share of consumption demand in emerging markets from one third of global consumption to two third by 2050.

And when 3 billion people in emerging markets get rise in income, the market for discretionary items is set to explode. And the biggest of these markets are going to be China and India. One of the biggest beneficiary of this change in consumption pattern would be automotive sector.

This is going to happen because as of now we are at very early stage of development, as workers are increasingly better equipped with more machinery and technology and their level of skills rises, their productivity will increase, GDP will continue to expand and alongside it the workers’ real incomes.


Automotive Sector Research Report - Click here to download

Growth Opportunities Portfolio - 26 Nov 2013

In this portfolio, we recommend to invest in growth shares for multifold long term profits. Some examples of recommendations since 2010 -

1. Tata Motors - Current price Rs 380, recommended in 2011 Oct at 155

2. Asian Paints - Current price rs 516, recommended in 2010 Nov at 271

3. Sun Pharma - Current price rs 580, recommended in 2010 Aug at 176

These recommendations are based on long term themes that are part of India's growth story. For example, our research has shown automotive sector to be one of the biggest gainer from India's growth. And we had picked up Tata Motors due to its global reach via JLR.  We would soon be publishing our report on Automotive Sector.

Change in Daily Research - 26 Nov 2013

We are stopping Daily View on Dollar Index and Daily Recommendations on stocks trading. We will post Dollar View when we expect any important change in its trend.

Monthly Return Hedged Portfolio - 4.2% ROI in Nov 2013

Bull spread position in Nifty was closed profitably yesterday. November Returns for Monthly Return Hedged Portfolio is 4.2%. Total returns now amount to 55% in seven months (it was launched in May). This portfolio has generated consistently 4-10% ROI every month. 

Download link: Click here for details

“There are one hundred men seeking security to one able man who is willing to risk his fortune.”

J. Paul Getty

Daily Recommendations - 19 Nov 2013

Open Positions - Hold Dabur. ITC exceeded tgt 321, SRTRANSFIN met target 600, hold POWERGRID for 98

Daily Recommendations - 16 Nov 2013

Open Positions - Hold Dabur, exit from ITC near cost 321, hold Powergrid for 99-100, SRTRANSFIN for 600

Daily Recommendations - 8 Nov 2013

Open Positions - Hold Dabur and ITC. Crompton met its tgt yesterday. Hold LT for its tgt with trailing SL 865, hold Adani for 208 with TSL 213.

New Positions - Buy Powergrid near 94-95, buy SRTRANSFIN on dip between 560-570

Daily View - Dollar Index, 8 Nov 2013

Trend, Momentum, and S/R Levels

Review of previous Analysis:

Trading recommendation – none
S/R Levels – Partly Correct
Direction View - Not given

Price reached 81.565 (our resistance level was 81.25) and made a low of 80.52 (near our support level of 80.6/44).

System Analysis:

	Analysis
Minor Cycles	Near top
Intermediate Cycles	Turned Up, but end of downtrending not confirmed
Major Cycles	Approaching Bottom

System Signals: Major cycle is near bottom so direction should be up from here but minor cycles may cause a correction.

Conventional Technical Analysis:

Bearish setups –
1. Momentum indicating overbought price

Bullish setups –
1. Price has crossed above 30 DMA
2. Price has crossed above down channel
3. Price has crossed above speed resistance line
4. Price has crossed above 38.2% retracement level of 80.5

Price has all bullish signals except momentum which may cause a correction.

Key S/R Levels:
• Resistance Levels: 81.1 - 81.54
• Support Levels: 80.5 - 80

Risk: Buyers may not see a dip.

Recommendation: Wait for a correction to buy near 80.2.

Daily Recommendations - 7 Nov 2013

Open Positions - Hold Dabur, Adani, LT for respective targets. Crompton almost reached tgt yesterday, if not closed yesterday, close the position today.

New Position - Buy ITC near 321 and hold.

Daily View - Dollar Index, 7 Nov 2013

Due to some technical problems, the Daily View could not be posted today. Inconvirence is regreted.

Daily Recommendations - 6 Nov 2013

Open Positions - HINDUNILVR exited in profit on trailing SL at 604.

New Positions - Sell ADANIENT between 215 - 211 tgt 200, buy ITC on dip near 314 and hold, sell LT on rise near 975 tgt 950, sell CROMPTON near 113 tgt 109, buy DABUR near 174 tgt 179.

Daily View - Dollar Index, 6 Nov 2013

Trend, Momentum, and S/R Levels

Review of previous Analysis:

Trading recommendation – none
S/R Levels – Correct
Direction View - Not given

Price reached 80.895 (our resistance level was 80.9) and made a low of 80.575 (near our support level of 80.55).

System Analysis:

	Analysis
Minor Cycles	Near Top, may expect minor correction
Intermediate Cycles	Turned Up, but end of downtrending not confirmed
Major Cycles	Approaching Bottom

Conventional Technical Analysis:

Bearish setups –
1. Momentum indicating overbought price

Bullish setups –
1. Price has crossed above 30 DMA
2. Price has crossed above down channel
3. Price has crossed above speed resistance line
4. Price has crossed above 38.2% retracement level of 80.5

Price has all bullish signals except momentum which may cause a correction.

Key S/R Levels:
• Resistance Levels: 80.9 - 81.25
• Support Levels: 80.75 - 80.6 - 80.44 - 80

Risk: Buyers may not see a dip.

Recommendation: 80.75 and 80.6 are crucial supports. Wait for a correction to buy near 80.

Daily Recommendations - 5 Nov 2013

Open Positions - Hold HINDUNILVR with trailing SL of 604

New Positions - 

Daily View - Dollar Index, 5 Nov 2013

Trend, Momentum, and S/R Levels

Review of previous Analysis:

Trading recommendation – Closing today in profit
S/R Levels – Correct
Direction View - Correct

Price reached 81.01 (our resistance was 80.9/81.25) and made a low of 80.61 (near support of 79.55).

System Analysis:

	Analysis
Minor Cycles	Near Top, may expect minor correction
Intermediate Cycles	Turned Up, but end of downtrending not confirmed
Major Cycles	Approaching Bottom

Conventional Technical Analysis:

Bearish setups –
1. Momentum indicating overbought price

Bullish setups –
1. Price has crossed above 30 DMA
2. Price has crossed above down channel
3. Price has crossed above speed resistance line

Price has all bullish signals except momentum which may cause a correction.

Key S/R Levels:
• Resistance Levels: 80.9 - 81.25
• Support Levels: 80.8 - 80.55 - 80.1

Risk: Buyers may not see a dip.

Recommendation: Book profit in yesterday's short at CMP 80.63. Yesterday when price crossed below 80.8, then it was unable to go above it but did not reach our target of 80.58. Wait for a correction to buy.

Long Tern View - Dollar Index, 4 Nov 2013

TRACK RECORD - Currencies

Accuracy: 100%, ROI: 24% per trade (assuming 2.5% margin, details in 'Performance' tab)

	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Total Trades	2	1	3	1	2	5
Profitable Trades	2	1	3	1	2	5

 

Trend, Momentum, and S/R Levels

Review of previous Analysis:

S/R Levels – Correct - Price took support exactly near first level of 79.
Direction View - Mostly Correct - We expected downfall till Jan 2014 in our 14 Oct post, prices did fell till our first support of 79 but a bottom is now visible at 79 and prices may not fall further.

System Analysis:

Trend: Up

Dow Cycles	Analysis
Minor	Turned up from bottom, expect more rise in prices
Intermediate	Midway crawling, needs a clear movement for a clear indication
Major	Midway down, no indication

Conventional Technical Analysis:

Bearish setups –
1. Price is still below speed resistance lines

Bullish setups –
1. Price has crossed above 30 DMA
2. Price has taken support at its long term moving average
3. Price has taken support at 38.2% retracement level
4. Inverted hammer at previous candle

Price has mostly bullish signals.

Key S/R Levels:
• Resistance Levels: 80.9 - 82.3 - 83
• Support Levels: 80 - 79

Risk: Buyers may not see a dip.

View and Recommendations: Downside seems to be over. Price is above supports of 79 and 80, and System Analysis as well as conventional TA both are indicating bullishness. Next major upside level is 83 which Dollar can achieve by Dec/Jan 2013 on condition that it remains above 80. Avoid short selling, buy on dips.

Daily View - Dollar Index, 4 Nov 2013

Trend, Momentum, and S/R Levels

Review of previous Analysis:

Trading recommendation – Not given
S/R Levels – Correct
Direction View - Correct

Price crossed resistance 80.2 against our view.

System Analysis:

	Analysis
Minor Cycles	Near Top, may expect minor correction
Intermediate Cycles	Turned Up, but end of downtrending not confirmed
Major Cycles	Approaching Bottom

Conventional Technical Analysis:

Bearish setups –
1. Momentum indicating overbought price

Bullish setups –
1. Price has crossed above 30 DMA
2. Price has crossed above down channel
3. Price has crossed above speed resistance line

Price has all bullish signals except momentum which may cause a correction.

Key S/R Levels:
• Resistance Levels: 80.9 - 81.25
• Support Levels: 80.8 - 80.55 - 80.3

Risk: Buyers may not see a dip.

Recommendation: Wait for a correction to buy. Sell if price is unable to go above 80.9 and crosses below 80.8, for target 80.58 SL 80.91.

Daily Recommendations - 1 Nov 2013

Open Positions - Andhra bank shot up by over 8% yesterday crossing tgt 58. Hold HINDUNILVR.

Daily View - Dollar Index, 1 Nov 2013

Trend, Momentum, and S/R Levels

Trend: Down since Sep 2013.
Mode: Trending down.

Review of previous Analysis:

Trading recommendation – Parrtly Correct
S/R Levels – Correct
Direction View - Incorrect

Price crossed resistance 80.2 against our view.

Cycle Analysis: Daily major cycle is trending down but price may rise as it has crossed crucial resistance of 80.2. Major cycles have turned up, avoid selling.
• Sell Signal: -
• Buy Signal: -

Conventional Technical Analysis:

Bearish setups –
None

Bullish setups –
1. Momentum is rising
2. Price has crossed above 30 DMA
3. Price has crossed above down channel
4. Price has crossed above speed resistance line

Price has all bullish signals, expect it near 81.

Key S/R Levels:
• Resistance Levels: 81
• Support Levels: 80.2

Risk: Price may remain volatile.

Recommendation: Avoid trading.