Open Positions - DLF and HINDALCO, IDEA did not reach buying level. ADANIPORTS(145) met 1st tgt 149, BHEL(137) met 1st tgt 140. Exit PETRONET(124) at cost. Hold ANDHRABANK, HINDUNILVR.
Thursday, October 31, 2013
Daily View - Dollar Index, 31 Oct 2013
Trend: Down since Sep 2013.Mode: Trending down.
Review of previous Analysis:
Trading recommendation – CorrectCycle Analysis: Daily major cycle is trending down and upside is very difficult and more downside probabilities are high. Pullback may continue today as short term cycles are rising.
S/R Levels – Correct
Direction View - Correct
Pullback continued yesterday as expected and prices reached the resistance level of 80 (made a high of 79.975) which was repeatedly being mentioned by us since last week. Assuming one sold at 79.95, 1st target of 79.77 has been achieved.
• Sell Signal: Short term cycles are near peak and a fall is expected..
• Buy Signal: -
Conventional Technical Analysis:
Bearish setups –Key S/R Levels:
1. Price made a new low on 25th Oct indicating trend is still down
2. Price is below the last support of the speed resistance lines
3. Price is below 30 DMA
4. Price is moving in a downward channel and is yet to come out of it
Bullish setups –
1. Momentum is rising
2. Price has crossed above 7 DMA indicating short term rise
Price has turned down from near resistance zone of 80-80.2, it is difficult for price to rise beyond this zone.
• Resistance Levels: 79.77 - 80.2 - 80.45 – 81
• Support Levels: 79.65 - 79.45 - 79 – 78.5 - 77
Risk: Price may rise quickly to near 80.2 against its downtrend if it remains above 79.77.
Recommendation: Hold short (79.95) for 79.65/79.45 with trailing SL 79.8. (SL level added during the day)
Wednesday, October 30, 2013
Daily View - Dollar Index, 30 Oct 2013
Trend, Momentum, and S/R Levels
Trend: Down since Sep 2013.
Mode: Trending down.
Review of previous Analysis:
Trading recommendation – Price did not reach selling level
S/R Levels – S level was correct at 79, price moving up near R at 80-80.2
Direction View - CorrectMuch expected pullback took place yesterday and prices moved as expected.
Cycle Analysis: Daily major cycle is trending down and upside is very difficult and more downside probabilities are very high. Pullback may continue today as short term cycles are rising.
• Sell Signal: Since cycles are on downside and down trending has been confirmed, so more downside may be expected. A clear sell signals may take 1-2 days as short term cycles have yet to peak.
• Buy Signal: Buying is risky in a trending down market, even if short term cycles may cause a rise in price.
Conventional Technical Analysis:
Bearish setups –
1. Price made a new low on 25th Oct indicating trend is still down
2. Price is below the last support of the speed resistance lines
3. Price is below 30 DMA
4. Price is moving in a downward channel and is yet to come out of it
Bullish setups –
1. Price is near support of 79.
2. Momentum is rising
3. Price has crossed above 7 DMA indicating short term rise
4. Price is near 38.2% level and if it crosses above, price may reach 80-80.2Price is pulling back and may rise to near 80-80.2 on crossing above 79.77. Strong resistance is indicated at 80-80.2 range and all the bullish factors may take price up to this level only beyond which it is difficult for price to rise.
Key S/R Levels:
• Resistance Levels: 79.77 - 80.2 - 80.45 – 81
• Support Levels: 79 – 78.5 - 77
Risk: Price may rise quickly to near 80.2 against its downtrend.
Recommendation: Sell on rise near 80 and hold for 79.77/79.5. Avoid long positions.
Daily Recommendations - 30 Oct 2013
Open positions - Yesterday 3/4 positions were closed as they reached targets. bajaj-auto crossed 2110, coalindia crossed 282, and SRTF crossed 574. Hold AndhraBank for 58.
New Positions - Buy ADANIPORT between 143-145 tgt 149/152, BHEL 136-137 tgts 140/142, DLF 147-150 tgts 155/158, HINDALCO 108-109.5 tgts 111/114, HINUNILVR 595-600 tgts 620/640, IDEA 168-169 tgts 171.5/175/180, PETRONET 123-124.5 tgts 126/127. One can hold HINDUNILVR and ADANIPORT.
New Positions - Buy ADANIPORT between 143-145 tgt 149/152, BHEL 136-137 tgts 140/142, DLF 147-150 tgts 155/158, HINDALCO 108-109.5 tgts 111/114, HINUNILVR 595-600 tgts 620/640, IDEA 168-169 tgts 171.5/175/180, PETRONET 123-124.5 tgts 126/127. One can hold HINDUNILVR and ADANIPORT.
Tuesday, October 29, 2013
Daily View - Dollar Index, 29 Oct 2013
Detailed view could not be posted today - but same analysis holds for today.
Daily Recommendations - 29 Oct 2013
Open Positions - Unilever crossed first tgt yesterday, HDFC crossed second tgt yesterday. Hold SRTF for 267/274, coalindia for 282/285, bajajauto for 2110
Monday, October 28, 2013
Daily View - Dollar Index, 28 Oct 2013
Trend, Momentum, and S/R Levels
Trend: Down since Sep 2013.
Mode: Trending down.
Review of previous Analysis:
Trading recommendation – Flat market
S/R Levels – Flat market
Direction View - Flat market
Cycle Analysis: Daily major cycle is trending down and upside is very difficult and more downside probabilities are very high. Pullback chance have dimmed as short term cycles have turned down midway before reaching peak.
• Sell Signal: Since cycles are on downside and down trending has been confirmed, so more downside may be expected. A clear sell signals may take few days as short term cycles have yet to peak..
• Buy Signal: None.
Conventional Technical Analysis:
Bearish setups –
1. Price made a new low on 24th Oct indicating trend is still down
2. Price is below the last support of the speed resistance lines
Bullish setups –
1. Price is near support of 79.
2. Momentum is indicating oversold pricePrice is now near expected immediate support level. Wait for an upward movement for a selling opportunity. Avoid long positions.
Key S/R Levels:
• Resistance Levels: 79.5 - 79.6 - 79.77 - 80 - 80.45 – 81
• Support Levels: 79 – 78.5 - 77
Risk: Price may rise quickly to near 80 if it strongly crosses above 79.5 against its downtrend. Thogh the probability is low.
Recommendation: Sell on rise near 80 and hold
Daily Recommendations - 28 Oct 2013
Open Positions - Hold HDFC tgts 815/823, coalindia 282.5/285, bajajauto 2130, unilever 610/620
New Positions - Buy Andhra Bank near 54 tgt 56, SRTF near 562-67 tgt 574/84, raymond nr 213 tgt 220/230
New Positions - Buy Andhra Bank near 54 tgt 56, SRTF near 562-67 tgt 574/84, raymond nr 213 tgt 220/230
Friday, October 25, 2013
Daily Recommendations - 25 Oct 2013
Open Positions - Yesterday's recommended buying on dip occurred near last hour. Bought Bajaj-auto at 2090, HDFC at 805, and Reliance at 890.
Book profits in Colgate near 1285, in HDFC near 820, Unilever near 620, exit from Reliance near cost, and hold Bajaj-auto.
New Position: Buy Coal India near 279
Book profits in Colgate near 1285, in HDFC near 820, Unilever near 620, exit from Reliance near cost, and hold Bajaj-auto.
New Position: Buy Coal India near 279
Daily View - Dollar Index 25 Oct 2013
Trend, Momentum, and S/R Levels
Trend: Down since Sep 2013.
Mode: Trending down.
Review of previous Analysis:
Trading recommendation – Flat market
S/R Levels – Flat market
Direction View - Flat market
Cycle Analysis: Daily major cycle is trending down and upside is very difficult and more downside probabilities are very high. Pullback chance have dimmed as short term cycles have turned down midway before reaching peak. .
• Sell Signal: Since cycles are on downside and down trending has been confirmed, so more downside may be expected. A clear sell signals may take few days as short term cycles have yet to peak..
• Buy Signal: None.
Conventional Technical Analysis:
Bearish setups –
1. Price made a new low on 17th Oct indicating trend is still down
2. Price is below the last support of the speed resistance lines
Bullish setups –
1. Price is near support of 79.
2. Momentum is indicating oversold pricePrice is now near expected immediate support level. Wait for an upward movement for a selling opportunity. Avoid long positions.
Key S/R Levels:
• Resistance Levels: 79.44 - 79.65 - 80 - 80.45– 80.9– 81 – 81.2 – 82 – 82.8
• Support Levels: 79 – 78.5 - 77
Risk: Price may rise quickly to near 80 if it strongly crosses above 79.44 against its downtrend.
Recommendation: Avoid trading.
Thursday, October 24, 2013
Daily Recommendations - 24 Oct 2013
Open Positions - Unilever and Cipla made dips yesterday and could have been purchased at 600 and Cipla at 415 on their way up from dips. Unilever went up by 6% and still if you have not booked profit, then hold. Book profit in Cipla and hold Colgate.
New Positions - Buy HDFC, Bajaj-auto and RIL on dips
New Positions - Buy HDFC, Bajaj-auto and RIL on dips
Daily View - Dollar Index, 24 Oct 2013
Trend, Momentum, and S/R Levels
Trend: Down since Sep 2013.
Mode: Trending down.
Review of previous Analysis:
Trading recommendation – Flat market
S/R Levels – Flat market
Direction View - Flat market
Cycle Analysis: Daily major cycle is now trending down and upside is very difficult and more downside probabilities are very high. Pullback is being expected since last three days, that may take place today as short term cycles are still at their bottoms and have not turned up since last two-three days..
• Sell Signal: Since cycles are on downside and down trending has been confirmed, so more downside may be expected. Sell signals may take few days as short term cycles have yet to peak..
• Buy Signal: Pullback can be expected today.
Conventional Technical Analysis:
Bearish setups –
1. Price made a new low on 17th Oct indicating trend is still down
2. Price is below the last support of the speed resistance lines
Bullish setups –
1. Price is near support of 79.
2. Momentum is indicating oversold pricePrice is now near expected immediate support level. Though price is clearly in trending down mode, downward crash immediately today is not expected. Wait for an upward movement for a selling opportunity. Avoid long positions.
Key S/R Levels:
• Resistance Levels: 79.44 - 79.75 - 80 - 80.45– 80.9– 81 – 81.2 – 82 – 82.8
• Support Levels: 79 – 78.5 - 77
Risk: Price may rise quickly to near 80 if it strongly crosses above 79.44 against its downtrend.
Recommendation: Avoid trading.
Wednesday, October 23, 2013
Daily Recommendations - 23 Oct 2013
Open Positions - Hold Colgate
New Positions - Buy Hind Unilever, Cipla, on dip
New Positions - Buy Hind Unilever, Cipla, on dip
Daily View - Dollar Index, 23 Oct 2013
Trend, Momentum, and S/R Levels
Trend: Down since Sep 2013.
Mode: Trending down.
Review of previous Analysis:
Trading recommendation – Price was near selling level
S/R Levels – Price made a high near R and a low near S
Direction View - Correct
Cycle Analysis: Daily major cycle is now trending down and upside is very difficult and more downside probabilities are very high. As repeatedly mentioned that "below 79.7, DX can drop to 79 as immediate level", DX crashed during end of the day from above 79.85 to below 79.3. Pullback was expected since last two days, that may take place today though it may not be a strong one.
• Sell Signal: Since cycles are on downside and down trending has been confirmed, so more downside may be expected. Sell signals may take few days as short term cycle is on rise from bottom.
• Buy Signal: Pullback can be expected today.
Conventional Technical Analysis:
Bearish setups –
1. Price made a new low on 17th Oct indicating trend is still down
2. Price is below the last support of the speed resistance lines
Bullish setups –
1. None.Price is now near expected immediate support level. Though price is clearly in trending down mode, downward crash immediately today is not expected. Wait for an upward movement for a selling opportunity. Avoid long positions.
Key S/R Levels:
• Resistance Levels: 79.85 - 80 - 80.45– 80.9– 81 – 81.2 – 82 – 82.8
• Support Levels: 79 – 78.5 - 77
Risk: Price may rise quickly if it strongly crosses above 80 against its downtrend.
Recommendation: If sold near 79.85, book profit near CMP 79.22. More indications are for a downside, especially if prices remain below 80. Sell on rise near 79.85 with SL 80 and target 79.
Tuesday, October 22, 2013
Daily View - Dollar Index 22 Oct 2013
Trend, Momentum, and S/R Levels
Trend: Down since Sep 2013.
Mode: Trending down.
Review of previous Analysis:
Trading recommendation – Not triggered
S/R Levels – Market was flat
Direction View - Market was flat
Cycle Analysis: Daily major cycle is now trending down and upside is very difficult and more downside probabilities are very high. A minor cycle has reached near its bottom and prices can bounce today along with it. Prices can see 82 only if they cross major hurdles of 80.17 - 80.45 - 80.9. Below 79.7, DX can drop to 79 as immediate level.
• Sell Signal: Since cycles are on downside and down trending has been confirmed, so more downside may be expected. Sell signals may take few days as short term cycle is on rise from bottom.
• Buy Signal: Pullback can be expected today.
Conventional Technical Analysis:
Bearish setups –
1. Price is below 38.2% retracement of 80.06
2. Price is below the last support of the speed resistance lines
3. Price failed to close above peak of 80.69 (point ‘a’ closing price) at its next peak of point ‘c’.
4. Price made a new low on 17th Oct indicating trend is still down
Bullish setups –
1. The momentum indicator (bottom panel), had given a clear re-accumulation buy signal at bottom point ‘b’, where the indicator had a higher bottom compared to its previous bottom. The re-accumulation is shown by green rising arrow in indicator panel and blue declining arrow in price plot. But there are also indications that the effect of this bullish signal is already over.Though there are more bearish indications, but since a minor cycle is at bottom that can cause a bounce, caution should be adopted in trading. If price remains below 80, then expect more downside to 79. Avoid long positions.
Key S/R Levels:
• Resistance Levels: 80.2 - 80.45– 80.9– 81 – 81.2 – 82 – 82.8
• Support Levels: 79 – 78.5 - 77
Risk: Price may continue to rise if it strongly crosses above its first resistance level against its downtrend.
Recommendation: More indications are for a downside, especially if prices remain below 80. Sell on rise near 80.1 with SL 80.21 and targets 79.6/79.
Daily Recommendations - 22 Oct 2013
Open Positions - Exit from SBI long and hold Colgate long position
Sunday, October 20, 2013
Long Term View Update - 21 Oct 2013
Nifty: Its pullback is now an uptrend. Its major cycle has confirmed an up trending market. Can expect 6550 (Future) by December end if prices remain above 6200 (Future).
Daily Recommendations - 21 Oct 2013
Open Positions - Bajaj-auto short level was not triggered. Exit from DLF short near cost
New Positions - Buy SBI, Hindalco (on dip near 112), Colgate (near 1260)
New Positions - Buy SBI, Hindalco (on dip near 112), Colgate (near 1260)
Daily View - Dollar Index, 21 Oct 2013
Mode: Cyclic, but one Cycle Indicator has indicated beginning of down trending prices which has to be confirmed by a daily major cycle.
Review of previous Analysis:
Trading recommendation – Not triggeredCycle Analysis: Daily major cycle is now trending down and upside is very difficult and more downside probabilities are very high. A minor cycle has reached near its bottom and prices can bounce today along with it. Prices can see 82 only if they cross major hurdles of 80.17 - 80.45 - 80.9. Below 79.7, DX can drop to 79 as immediate level.
S/R Levels – Market was flat
Direction View - Market was flat
• Sell Signal: Since cycles are on downside and down trending has been confirmed, so more downside may be expected. Sell signals may take few days as short term cycle is may rise from bottom.
• Buy Signal: Pullback can be expected today.
Conventional Technical Analysis:
Bearish setups –Key S/R Levels:
1. Price is below 38.2% retracement of 80.9
2. Price is below the last support of the speed resistance lines
3. Price failed to close above peak of 80.69 (point ‘a’ closing price) at its next peak of point ‘c’.
Bullish setups –
1. The momentum indicator (bottom panel), had given a clear re-accumulation buy signal at bottom point ‘b’, where the indicator had a higher bottom compared to its previous bottom. The re-accumulation is shown by green rising arrow in indicator panel and blue declining arrow in price plot. But there are also indications that the effect of this bullish signal is already over.
Though there are more bearish indications, but since a minor cycle is at bottom that can cause a bounce, caution should be adopted in trading. If price remains below 80.17, then expect more downside to 79. Avoid long positions.
• Resistance Levels: 80.18 - 80.45– 80.9– 81 – 81.2 – 82 – 82.8
• Support Levels: 79 – 78.5 - 77
Risk: Price may continue to rise if it strongly crosses above its first resistance level against its downtrend.
Recommendation: More indications are for a downside, especially if prices remain below 80.17. Sell on rise near 80 with SL 80.2 and targets 79.6/79.
Friday, October 18, 2013
Daily View - Dollar Index 18 Oct, 2013
Due to some technical problem yesterday's Daily View could not be published. Apologies for inconvenience.
Trend, Momentum, and S/R Levels
Trend: Down since Sep 2013.
Mode: Cyclic, but one Cycle Indicator has indicated beginning of down trending prices which has to be confirmed by a daily major cycle.
Review of previous Analysis:
Trading recommendation – Not given
S/R Levels – 100% Accurate
Direction View - Correct
Pullback was expected on 16th and it took place and fizzeled out at mentioned resistance level of 80.86. Strong chance of spike in any direction was mentioned, which occured on 17th below 80.45 - which was repeatedly mentioned as a crucial level. Overall downtrend is in line with expectation. On 15th it was mentioned that "If price remains below 80.45, then 79.8 is possible in few days" - and DX closed yesterday at 79.718!
Cycle Analysis: A minor cycle has reached near its bottom and prices can bounce along with it. Daily major cycle is up and prices can see 82 if they cross major hurdles of 80.17 - 80.45 - 80.9.
• Sell Signal: Since cycles are on downside and there is warning of down trending, so more downside may be expected. Sell signals may take few days as short term cycle is may rise from bottom.
• Buy Signal: Pullback can be expected today.
Conventional Technical Analysis:
Bearish setups –
1. Price is below 38.2% retracement of 80.9
2. Price is below the last support of the speed resistance lines
3. Price failed to close above peak of 80.69 (point ‘a’ closing price) at its next peak of point ‘c’.
Bullish setups –
1. The momentum indicator (bottom panel), had given a clear re-accumulation buy signal at bottom point ‘b’, where the indicator had a higher bottom compared to its previous bottom. The re-accumulation is shown by green rising arrow in indicator panel and blue declining arrow in price plot. But there are also indications that the effect of this bullish signal is already over.
Though there are more bearish indications, but since momentum and cycles are indicating probability of a pullback so caution should be adopted in trading. If price remains below 80.17, then expect more downside to 79. Avoid longs.
Key S/R Levels:
• Resistance Levels: 80.18 - 80.45– 80.9– 81 – 81.2 – 82 – 82.8
• Support Levels: 79.85 – 79 – 77
Risk: Price may continue to rise above first resistance against its downtrend.
Recommendation: More indications are for a downside, especially if prices remain below 80.17. Sell on rise near 80.1 with SL 80.2 and targets 79.9/ 79.5/79.
Trend, Momentum, and S/R Levels
Trend: Down since Sep 2013.
Mode: Cyclic, but one Cycle Indicator has indicated beginning of down trending prices which has to be confirmed by a daily major cycle.
Review of previous Analysis:
Trading recommendation – Not given
S/R Levels – 100% Accurate
Direction View - Correct
Pullback was expected on 16th and it took place and fizzeled out at mentioned resistance level of 80.86. Strong chance of spike in any direction was mentioned, which occured on 17th below 80.45 - which was repeatedly mentioned as a crucial level. Overall downtrend is in line with expectation. On 15th it was mentioned that "If price remains below 80.45, then 79.8 is possible in few days" - and DX closed yesterday at 79.718!
Cycle Analysis: A minor cycle has reached near its bottom and prices can bounce along with it. Daily major cycle is up and prices can see 82 if they cross major hurdles of 80.17 - 80.45 - 80.9.
• Sell Signal: Since cycles are on downside and there is warning of down trending, so more downside may be expected. Sell signals may take few days as short term cycle is may rise from bottom.
• Buy Signal: Pullback can be expected today.
Conventional Technical Analysis:
Bearish setups –
1. Price is below 38.2% retracement of 80.9
2. Price is below the last support of the speed resistance lines
3. Price failed to close above peak of 80.69 (point ‘a’ closing price) at its next peak of point ‘c’.
Bullish setups –
1. The momentum indicator (bottom panel), had given a clear re-accumulation buy signal at bottom point ‘b’, where the indicator had a higher bottom compared to its previous bottom. The re-accumulation is shown by green rising arrow in indicator panel and blue declining arrow in price plot. But there are also indications that the effect of this bullish signal is already over.
Though there are more bearish indications, but since momentum and cycles are indicating probability of a pullback so caution should be adopted in trading. If price remains below 80.17, then expect more downside to 79. Avoid longs.
Key S/R Levels:
• Resistance Levels: 80.18 - 80.45– 80.9– 81 – 81.2 – 82 – 82.8
• Support Levels: 79.85 – 79 – 77
Risk: Price may continue to rise above first resistance against its downtrend.
Recommendation: More indications are for a downside, especially if prices remain below 80.17. Sell on rise near 80.1 with SL 80.2 and targets 79.9/ 79.5/79.
Daily Recommendations - 18 Oct, 2013
Open Positions: Exit was triggered in Bharat Forge, BHEL, and Tatasteel on trailing SL (50% retracement)*. Exit from remaining two shorts - LIC Housing Finance and Maruti. All closed in profit.
New Positions: Short Bajajauto future on rise near 2205, short DLF future on rise near 157.
New Positions: Short Bajajauto future on rise near 2205, short DLF future on rise near 157.
Wednesday, October 16, 2013
Daily View - Dollar Index, 16 Oct 2013
Mode: Cyclic, but one Cycle Indicator has indicated beginning of down trending prices which has to be confirmed by a daily major cycle.
Review of Yesterday’s Analysis:
Trading recommendation – CorrectCycle Analysis: Prices have gone above 80.45 crucial level riding on a minor cycle. It may continue moving up today. Daily frequency major cycle unexpectedly turned up yesterday before reaching its bottom. Prices can see 81.5/82 after crossing major hurdle of 80.76/86 and they need to remain above 80.45.
S/R Levels – 100% Accurate
Direction View - Correct
Yesterday it was mentioned that a bounce back can be expected as a minor cycle starts moving up – and exactly that happened. Recommendation was “Sell on rise near 80.7/8 with SL 80.9 and targets 80.45/80.34/80”, DX made a high of exactly 80.8 and a low of exactly 80.34!
• Sell Signal: Prices are expected to move up as both minor and major cycles are moving up. Avoid short selling today.
• Buy Signal: Pullback can be expected today.
Conventional Technical Analysis:
Bearish setups –Key S/R Levels:
1. Price is below 61.8% retracement of 81.23
2. Price is below the last support of the speed resistance lines
3. Price failed to close above peak of 80.69 (point ‘a’ closing price) at its next peak of point ‘c’.
Bullish setups –
1. The momentum indicator (bottom panel), had given a clear re-accumulation buy signal at bottom point ‘b’, where the indicator had a higher bottom compared to its previous bottom. The re-accumulation is shown by green rising arrow in indicator panel and blue declining arrow in price plot.
There are mixed indications, but since cycles are indicating a pullback and there is also a chance of breaching support of 80.45. There is high risk of strong moves on any sides. 80.45 is a crucial level and if price go below this level, further downside is very much possible.
• Resistance Levels: 80.76 – 80.86 – 81 – 81.2 – 82 – 82.8
• Support Levels: 80.45 – 80.34 – 79.98 – 79.85 – 79 – 77
Risk: There can be breakout spike above 80.86 or a downside spike below 80.45.
Recommendation: Avoid trading.
Tuesday, October 15, 2013
Daily Recommendations - 15 Oct, 2013
Open Positions: Hold shorts (use trailing SL)
New Positions: Short LIC Housing Finance, Maruti
New Positions: Short LIC Housing Finance, Maruti
Daily View - Dollar Index, 15 Oct 2013
Trend: Down since Sep 2013.
Mode: Cyclic, but one Cycle
Indicator has indicated beginning of down trending prices which has to be
confirmed by a daily major cycle.
Cycle Analysis: A minor
cycle has reached near its bottom and prices can bounce along with it. If price
remains below 80.45, then 79.8 is possible in few days. If the major cycle
unexpectedly turns up, prices can see 82 after crossing major hurdle of
80.76/86.
·
Sell Signal: Since cycles are on downside and
there is warning of down trending, plus there is a short cycle peak, so more downside
may be expected. Sell signals can be expected on a rise near 80.7.
·
Buy Signal: Pullback can be expected today.
Conventional Technical Analysis:
Bearish setups –
1.
Price is below 61.8% retracement of 81.23
2.
Price is below the last support of the speed
resistance lines
3.
Price failed to close above peak of 80.69 (point
‘a’ closing price) at its next peak of point ‘c’.
Bullish setups –
1.
The momentum indicator (bottom panel), had given
a clear re-accumulation buy signal at bottom point ‘b’, where the indicator had
a higher bottom compared to its previous bottom. The re-accumulation is shown
by green rising arrow in indicator panel and blue declining arrow in price plot.
But there are also indications that the effect of this bullish signal is
already over. The prices had been rising after ‘b’ for a week, and they even
went above the peak of ‘a’ in intraday rally.
Though there are more bearish
indications, but since momentum and cycles are indicating probability of a pullback
so caution should be adopted in trading. One can still take chances and sell on
rise near 80.7/8 with SL at 80.9. There is a crucial level at 80.45 and if
price remains below this level, further downside is very much possible.
Key S/R Levels:
·
Resistance Levels:
80.76 – 80.86 – 81 – 81.2
– 82 – 82.8
·
Support Levels: 80.45
– 80.34 – 79.98 – 79.85 – 79 – 77
Risk:
There can be breakout spike above 80.86 or a downside spike below 80.45.
Recommendation: More
indications are for a downside, especially if prices remain below 80.45. Sell
on rise near 80.7/8 with SL 80.9 and targets 80.45/80.34/80.
Monday, October 14, 2013
Notice: Change in report formats
From today onward, following changes are being made in research posts -
1. Daily View - Instead of covering large number of securities in brief, now only few securities would be covered. Dollar Index would be a regular feature. The new format would be as used today for Dollar Index Daily View.
2. Long Term View - A new format as used today for DX would be used for detailed analysis of securities. Updates would be done as and when required.
3. Daily Recommendations - A new daily post section - it would mention in brief the securities where positional long or short trade can be done. The securities may have time or price target. Exit would be mentioned when expected or triggered by system.
1. Daily View - Instead of covering large number of securities in brief, now only few securities would be covered. Dollar Index would be a regular feature. The new format would be as used today for Dollar Index Daily View.
2. Long Term View - A new format as used today for DX would be used for detailed analysis of securities. Updates would be done as and when required.
3. Daily Recommendations - A new daily post section - it would mention in brief the securities where positional long or short trade can be done. The securities may have time or price target. Exit would be mentioned when expected or triggered by system.
Daily View - Dollar Index 14 Oct, 13
Trend: Down since Sep 2013.
Mode: Cyclic, but one Cycle
Indicator has indicated beginning of down trending prices which has to be
confirmed by a daily major cycle.
Cycle Analysis: There is
lack of clarity in cycles. All cycles are not synchronous. The major daily
cycle is falling and there is a short term peak. Since there are indications of
a down trending and prices are also following the downside of major cycle, therefore
more downside can be expected in next few days. 79.8 is possible in few days.
If the major cycle unexpectedly turns up, prices can see 82 after crossing
major hurdle of 80.76/86.
- Sell Signal: Since cycles are on downside and there is warning of down trending, plus there is a short cycle peak, so more downside may be expected. Sell signals can be expected on a rise near 80.7.
- Buy Signal: Short term trend is down and there is an early warning of a down trending market, so buying should be avoided.
Conventional Technical Analysis:
Bearish setups –
- Price is below 61.8% retracement of 81.23
- Price is below the last support of the speed resistance lines
- Price failed to close above peak of 80.69 (point ‘a’ closing price) at its next peak of point ‘c’.
Bullish setups –
- The momentum indicator (bottom panel), had given a clear re-accumulation buy signal at bottom point ‘b’, where the indicator had a higher bottom compared to its previous bottom. The re-accumulation is shown by green rising arrow in indicator panel and blue declining arrow in price plot. But there are also indications that the effect of this bullish signal is already over. The prices had been rising after ‘b’ for a week, and they even went above the peak of ‘a’ in intraday rally.
Though there are more bearish
indications, but since momentum is indicating probability of a rise so caution
should be adopted in trading. One can still take chances and sell on rise near
80.7/8 with SL at 80.9. There is a crucial support at 80.45 and if price remains
below this level, further downside is very much possible.
Key S/R Levels:
·
Resistance Levels:
80.76 – 80.86 – 81 – 81.2
– 82 – 82.8
·
Support Levels: 80.45
– 80.34 – 79.98 – 79.85 – 79 – 77
Risk:
There can be breakout spike above 80.86 or a downside spike below 80.45.
Recommendation: More
indications are for a downside, especially if prices remain below 80.45. Sell
on rise near 80.7/8 with SL 80.9 and targets 80.45/80.34/80.
Long Term View - Dollar Index 14 Oct, 13
Long Term View – Dollar Index
Long Term Trend: Consolidating
since 2008, but after 2011 it has been in up trend.
Mode: Cyclic, but one Cycle
Indicator has indicated beginning of down trending prices which has to be
confirmed by major cycles.
Cycle Analysis: There are
two long cycles currently going on, one started from E, and other from G. Both
cycles peaked at H and are now in downside. Shorter cycle will bottom out in Jan
2014 and longer one in Sep 2014. There are some short term cycles which are near
their bottom and can cause a pullback. So there is neither a clear buy
situation, nor a sell situation. But since there are indications of a down
trending and prices are also following the downside of major cycles, therefore more
downside should be expected. 77 seems to be possible by the end of this year.
- Sell Signal: Last long term Sell signal was in June 2013. Since cycles are on downside and there is warning of down trending, Sell signals can be expected on a rise.
- Buy Signal: Wait for a long term Buy signal till downside of cycles end or if there is an unexpected upward reversal of major cycle. Since there is an early warning of a down trending market, buying should be avoided.
Conventional Technical Analysis:
There are three indications of a further downside –
- Price has broken Fibonacci 50% support level
- Price has broken last support of the speed resistance lines
- The momentum indicator (bottom panel), had given a clear redistribution sell signal at H peak, where the indicator had a lower peak compared to its previous peak.
All these three are bearish setups,
indicating more downside till its next support.
Key S/R Levels: (applicable
till Dec 2014)
- Resistance Levels: 81.2 – 82 – 82.8 – 83.5 -85
- Support Levels: 79 – 77 – 76 – 70
- Hidden Levels (Important S/R levels which cannot be identified by traditional tools): Hidden resistance levels are shown by two red lines, and support levels are shown by two green lines in the chart.
Risk:
Major cycle may turn up before reaching its bottom, or prices may start
following upside of some minor cycle which may increase the threat further if
cyclic market becomes up trending. In terms of price levels, a breakout above
81.2 may take prices to the next resistance level.
Recommendation: Cycle analysis
as well as conventional technical analysis; both are indicating more downside
for Dollar Index hence long term entry should be avoided. Short selling
opportunity may arise on a rise. Investors should be alert for upside risk as
mentioned above.
Friday, October 11, 2013
Daily View - 11 Oct, Fri
BRIEF ANALYSIS FOR POSITIONAL TRADING
*************************************
EQUITIES
=========
1. NIFTY:
Minor Trend - Up
Nature of Trend - Cyclic
Cycle Direction - Up
Expected upside till - 2nd week of Oct
Current price movement- Upward move is weakning unless it starts trending up. Above 6120 (future), it will be a breakout and if it sustained, Nifty may see higher prices in near future.
Open position: - Exit level 6010 reached yesterday, Position closed.
Strategy -
2. NIKKEI:
Minor Trend - Consolidating since May 2013
Nature of trend - cyclic
Current Cycle Direction - Down
Current price movement- price rising in a bigger down cycle. May jump up to near 14700
Open position: -
Strategy: -
3. HANGSENG:
Minor Trend - Up
Nature of trend - cyclic
Cycle Direction - Down
Current price movement-
Strategy:
*********
CURRENCIES:
==============
1. DOLLAR INDEX:
Minor Trend - Down
Nature of trend - cyclic
Cycle Direction - Down
Current price movement- Price is trending down
Open Position: - TSL exit
Strategy:
2. EURUSD:
Minor Trend - Up
Nature of trend - cyclic
Cycle Direction - Up
Current price movement- Price is trending up, but correction is in place which may last few days.
Open Position: - Long
Strategy: Exit at CMP 1.3536
3. JPYUSD:
Minor Trend - Up
Nature of trend - cyclic
Cycle Direction - Up
Current price movement- Price is trending up but has failed to remain above breakout level and trending mode is showing
weakness.
Open position: Exited
Strategy: Buy on dip near 1.014
*********
COMMODITIES:
===============
1. GOLD (MCX):
Minor Trend - Up
Nature of trend - cyclic
Cycle Direction -
Current price movement- Price is near cycle bottom. if it fails to rise, it will start trending down. Closing above 29500 will indicate good chances of an up cycle. If it closes below 29200, it will indicate further fall. Right now it is almost at bottom of an intermediate cycle.
Open Position: TSL hit
Strategy:
2. SILVER (MCX):
Minor Trend - Up
Nature of trend - cyclic
Cycle Direction - Up
Current price movement- Price is near cycle bottom and if it fails to rise, it will start trending down. Price is following its up cycle.
Open Position: - TSL hit
Strategy:
3. COPPER (MCX):
Minor Trend - Up
Nature of trend - cyclic
Cycle Direction - Up
Current price movement-
Open Position: -
Strategy: -
*************************************
EQUITIES
=========
1. NIFTY:
Minor Trend - Up
Nature of Trend - Cyclic
Cycle Direction - Up
Expected upside till - 2nd week of Oct
Current price movement- Upward move is weakning unless it starts trending up. Above 6120 (future), it will be a breakout and if it sustained, Nifty may see higher prices in near future.
Open position: - Exit level 6010 reached yesterday, Position closed.
Strategy -
2. NIKKEI:
Minor Trend - Consolidating since May 2013
Nature of trend - cyclic
Current Cycle Direction - Down
Current price movement- price rising in a bigger down cycle. May jump up to near 14700
Open position: -
Strategy: -
3. HANGSENG:
Minor Trend - Up
Nature of trend - cyclic
Cycle Direction - Down
Current price movement-
Strategy:
*********
CURRENCIES:
==============
1. DOLLAR INDEX:
Minor Trend - Down
Nature of trend - cyclic
Cycle Direction - Down
Current price movement- Price is trending down
Open Position: - TSL exit
Strategy:
2. EURUSD:
Minor Trend - Up
Nature of trend - cyclic
Cycle Direction - Up
Current price movement- Price is trending up, but correction is in place which may last few days.
Open Position: - Long
Strategy: Exit at CMP 1.3536
3. JPYUSD:
Minor Trend - Up
Nature of trend - cyclic
Cycle Direction - Up
Current price movement- Price is trending up but has failed to remain above breakout level and trending mode is showing
weakness.
Open position: Exited
Strategy: Buy on dip near 1.014
*********
COMMODITIES:
===============
1. GOLD (MCX):
Minor Trend - Up
Nature of trend - cyclic
Cycle Direction -
Current price movement- Price is near cycle bottom. if it fails to rise, it will start trending down. Closing above 29500 will indicate good chances of an up cycle. If it closes below 29200, it will indicate further fall. Right now it is almost at bottom of an intermediate cycle.
Open Position: TSL hit
Strategy:
2. SILVER (MCX):
Minor Trend - Up
Nature of trend - cyclic
Cycle Direction - Up
Current price movement- Price is near cycle bottom and if it fails to rise, it will start trending down. Price is following its up cycle.
Open Position: - TSL hit
Strategy:
3. COPPER (MCX):
Minor Trend - Up
Nature of trend - cyclic
Cycle Direction - Up
Current price movement-
Open Position: -
Strategy: -
Thursday, October 10, 2013
Daily View - 10 Oct, Thu
BRIEF ANALYSIS FOR POSITIONAL TRADING
*************************************
EQUITIES
=========
1. NIFTY:
Minor Trend - Up
Nature of Trend - Cyclic
Cycle Direction - Up
Expected upside till - 2nd week of Oct
Current price movement- Upward move is weakning
Open position: - Yesterday it reached near selling levels making a high of 6057.95. Assuming short at 6055.
Strategy - exit near 6010
2. NIKKEI:
Minor Trend - Consolidating since May 2013
Nature of trend - cyclic
Current Cycle Direction - Down
Current price movement- price approaching near a short term cycle bottom in a bigger down cycle. As mentioned, pullback
took place yesterday. It may continue today.
Open position: -
Strategy: -
3. HANGSENG:
Minor Trend - Up
Nature of trend - cyclic
Cycle Direction - Down
Current price movement-
Strategy:
*********
CURRENCIES:
==============
1. DOLLAR INDEX:
Minor Trend - Down
Nature of trend - cyclic
Cycle Direction - Down
Current price movement- Price is trending down
Open Position: - Selling level 80.7 reached yesterday.
Strategy: Hold with SL 80.65
2. EURUSD:
Minor Trend - Up
Nature of trend - cyclic
Cycle Direction - Up
Current price movement- Price is trending up, but correction is in place which may last 1-3 days.
Open Position: - Buying level 1.35 reached yesterday.
Strategy: Hold with SL 1.35
3. JPYUSD:
Minor Trend - Up
Nature of trend - cyclic
Cycle Direction - Up
Current price movement- Price is trending up but has failed to remain above breakout level and trending mode is showing weakness.
Open position: Long at 1.03
Strategy: Exit near cost
*********
COMMODITIES:
===============
1. GOLD (MCX): 29619
Minor Trend - Up
Nature of trend - cyclic
Cycle Direction - Up
Current price movement- Price is near cycle bottom. if it fails to rise, it will start trending down. Closing above 29500 will indicate good chances of an up cycle. If it closes below 29200, it will indicate further fall. Right now it is almost at bottom of an intermediate cycle.
Open Position: Long
Strategy: Hold. Use trailing SL after every 200 points rise.
2. SILVER (MCX):
Minor Trend - Up
Nature of trend - cyclic
Cycle Direction - Up
Current price movement- Price is near cycle bottom and if it fails to rise, it will start trending down. Price is following its up cycle.
Open Position: - Silver reached recommended buying level 49000.
Strategy: Hold long with 48600 SL, use trailing SL after every rise of nearly 300 points
3. COPPER (MCX):
Minor Trend - Up
Nature of trend - cyclic
Cycle Direction - Up
Current price movement- Down cycle may continue for 1-2 weeks
Open Position: -
Strategy: -
*************************************
EQUITIES
=========
1. NIFTY:
Minor Trend - Up
Nature of Trend - Cyclic
Cycle Direction - Up
Expected upside till - 2nd week of Oct
Current price movement- Upward move is weakning
Open position: - Yesterday it reached near selling levels making a high of 6057.95. Assuming short at 6055.
Strategy - exit near 6010
2. NIKKEI:
Minor Trend - Consolidating since May 2013
Nature of trend - cyclic
Current Cycle Direction - Down
Current price movement- price approaching near a short term cycle bottom in a bigger down cycle. As mentioned, pullback
took place yesterday. It may continue today.
Open position: -
Strategy: -
3. HANGSENG:
Minor Trend - Up
Nature of trend - cyclic
Cycle Direction - Down
Current price movement-
Strategy:
*********
CURRENCIES:
==============
1. DOLLAR INDEX:
Minor Trend - Down
Nature of trend - cyclic
Cycle Direction - Down
Current price movement- Price is trending down
Open Position: - Selling level 80.7 reached yesterday.
Strategy: Hold with SL 80.65
2. EURUSD:
Minor Trend - Up
Nature of trend - cyclic
Cycle Direction - Up
Current price movement- Price is trending up, but correction is in place which may last 1-3 days.
Open Position: - Buying level 1.35 reached yesterday.
Strategy: Hold with SL 1.35
3. JPYUSD:
Minor Trend - Up
Nature of trend - cyclic
Cycle Direction - Up
Current price movement- Price is trending up but has failed to remain above breakout level and trending mode is showing weakness.
Open position: Long at 1.03
Strategy: Exit near cost
*********
COMMODITIES:
===============
1. GOLD (MCX): 29619
Minor Trend - Up
Nature of trend - cyclic
Cycle Direction - Up
Current price movement- Price is near cycle bottom. if it fails to rise, it will start trending down. Closing above 29500 will indicate good chances of an up cycle. If it closes below 29200, it will indicate further fall. Right now it is almost at bottom of an intermediate cycle.
Open Position: Long
Strategy: Hold. Use trailing SL after every 200 points rise.
2. SILVER (MCX):
Minor Trend - Up
Nature of trend - cyclic
Cycle Direction - Up
Current price movement- Price is near cycle bottom and if it fails to rise, it will start trending down. Price is following its up cycle.
Open Position: - Silver reached recommended buying level 49000.
Strategy: Hold long with 48600 SL, use trailing SL after every rise of nearly 300 points
3. COPPER (MCX):
Minor Trend - Up
Nature of trend - cyclic
Cycle Direction - Up
Current price movement- Down cycle may continue for 1-2 weeks
Open Position: -
Strategy: -
Wednesday, October 9, 2013
Daily View - 9 Oct, Wed
BRIEF ANALYSIS FOR POSITIONAL TRADING
*************************************
EQUITIES
=========
1. NIFTY:
Minor Trend - Up
Nature of Trend - Cyclic
Cycle Direction - Up
Expected upside till - 2nd week of Oct
Current price movement- Upward move is weakning
Open position: - Though sell level 6040 not reached but if short, exit.
Strategy - Sell future on rise near 6060.Sell 6100 call option when future is near 6020
2. NIKKEI:
Minor Trend - Consolidating since May 2013
Nature of trend - cyclic
Current Cycle Direction - Down
Current price movement- price approaching near a short term cycle bottom in a bigger down cycle. Pullback expected.
Open position: -
Strategy: -
3. HANGSENG:
Minor Trend - Up
Nature of trend - cyclic
Cycle Direction - Down
Current price movement- As mentioned, pullback took place yesterday. It may continue today.
Strategy: Sell signal should be generated on a rise
*********
CURRENCIES:
==============
1. DOLLAR INDEX:
Minor Trend - Down
Nature of trend - cyclic
Cycle Direction - Down
Current price movement- A more clear cyclic top has formed and indicators are showing forming of a small trending downwards.
Strategy: Sell on a rise near 80.7
2. EURUSD:
Minor Trend - Up
Nature of trend - cyclic
Cycle Direction - Up
Current price movement- Price is trending up, but correction is in place which may last 1-3 days.
Strategy: Buy on dips near 1.35
3. JPYUSD:
Minor Trend - Up
Nature of trend - cyclic
Cycle Direction - Up
Current price movement- Price is trending up and is about to come up from within a triangle. An upward breakout may take it to 1.065 and above.
Open position: Long at 1.03
Strategy: Hold
*********
COMMODITIES:
===============
1. GOLD (MCX): 29619
Minor Trend - Up
Nature of trend - cyclic
Cycle Direction - Up
Current price movement- Price is near cycle bottom. if it fails to rise, it will start trending down. Closing above 29500 will indicate good chances of an up cycle. If it closes below 29200, it will indicate further fall. Right now it is almost at bottom of an intermediate cycle.
Open Position: Long
Strategy: Hold
2. SILVER (MCX):
Minor Trend - Up
Nature of trend - cyclic
Cycle Direction - Up
Current price movement- Price is near cycle bottom and if it fails to rise, it will start trending down. Price is following its up cycle.
Open Position: - Recommended buying level 49000 did not reach but if long, book profit.
Strategy: Buy on dips near 49000
3. COPPER (MCX):
Minor Trend - Up
Nature of trend - cyclic
Cycle Direction - Up
Current price movement- Price is near cycle bottom and if it fails to rise, it will start trending down. A short downcycle is expected.
Open Position: -
Strategy: Wait
*************************************
EQUITIES
=========
1. NIFTY:
Minor Trend - Up
Nature of Trend - Cyclic
Cycle Direction - Up
Expected upside till - 2nd week of Oct
Current price movement- Upward move is weakning
Open position: - Though sell level 6040 not reached but if short, exit.
Strategy - Sell future on rise near 6060.Sell 6100 call option when future is near 6020
2. NIKKEI:
Minor Trend - Consolidating since May 2013
Nature of trend - cyclic
Current Cycle Direction - Down
Current price movement- price approaching near a short term cycle bottom in a bigger down cycle. Pullback expected.
Open position: -
Strategy: -
3. HANGSENG:
Minor Trend - Up
Nature of trend - cyclic
Cycle Direction - Down
Current price movement- As mentioned, pullback took place yesterday. It may continue today.
Strategy: Sell signal should be generated on a rise
*********
CURRENCIES:
==============
1. DOLLAR INDEX:
Minor Trend - Down
Nature of trend - cyclic
Cycle Direction - Down
Current price movement- A more clear cyclic top has formed and indicators are showing forming of a small trending downwards.
Strategy: Sell on a rise near 80.7
2. EURUSD:
Minor Trend - Up
Nature of trend - cyclic
Cycle Direction - Up
Current price movement- Price is trending up, but correction is in place which may last 1-3 days.
Strategy: Buy on dips near 1.35
3. JPYUSD:
Minor Trend - Up
Nature of trend - cyclic
Cycle Direction - Up
Current price movement- Price is trending up and is about to come up from within a triangle. An upward breakout may take it to 1.065 and above.
Open position: Long at 1.03
Strategy: Hold
*********
COMMODITIES:
===============
1. GOLD (MCX): 29619
Minor Trend - Up
Nature of trend - cyclic
Cycle Direction - Up
Current price movement- Price is near cycle bottom. if it fails to rise, it will start trending down. Closing above 29500 will indicate good chances of an up cycle. If it closes below 29200, it will indicate further fall. Right now it is almost at bottom of an intermediate cycle.
Open Position: Long
Strategy: Hold
2. SILVER (MCX):
Minor Trend - Up
Nature of trend - cyclic
Cycle Direction - Up
Current price movement- Price is near cycle bottom and if it fails to rise, it will start trending down. Price is following its up cycle.
Open Position: - Recommended buying level 49000 did not reach but if long, book profit.
Strategy: Buy on dips near 49000
3. COPPER (MCX):
Minor Trend - Up
Nature of trend - cyclic
Cycle Direction - Up
Current price movement- Price is near cycle bottom and if it fails to rise, it will start trending down. A short downcycle is expected.
Open Position: -
Strategy: Wait
Tuesday, October 8, 2013
Daily View - 8 Oct, Tue
BRIEF ANALYSIS FOR POSITIONAL TRADING
*************************************
EQUITIES
=========
1. NIFTY:
Minor Trend - Up
Nature of Trend - Cyclic
Cycle Direction - Up
Expected upside till - 2nd week of Oct
Current price movement- Upward move is weakning
Open position - Short (Future sold at 5975) was closed yesterday near market closing at 5938.
Strategy - Sell future on rise near 6040.
2. NIKKEI:
Minor Trend - Consolidating since May 2013
Nature of trend - cyclic
Current Cycle Direction - Down
Current price movement- price approaching near a short term cycle bottom in a bigger down cycle.
Open position: -
Strategy: -
3. HANGSENG:
Minor Trend - Up
Nature of trend - cyclic
Cycle Direction - Down
Current price movement- down cycle, pullback may happen today
Strategy: Sell signal should be generated on a rise
*********
CURRENCIES:
==============
1. DOLLAR INDEX:
Minor Trend - Down
Nature of trend - cyclic
Cycle Direction - Down
Current price movement- There is a pullback which may take it to 80.8-81.2-82
Strategy:
2. EURUSD:
Minor Trend - Up
Nature of trend - cyclic
Cycle Direction - Up
Current price movement- Price is trending up, but correction is in place which may last 1-3 days.
Strategy: Buy on dips near 1.348
3. JPYUSD:
Minor Trend - Up
Nature of trend - cyclic
Cycle Direction - Up
Current price movement- Price is trending up and is about to come up from within a triangle. An upward breakout may take it to 1.065 and above. It was mentioned yesterday that "Price can also breakout above 1.032 without coming down", and that has happened.
Strategy: Buy on dips near 1.03
*********
COMMODITIES:
===============
1. GOLD (MCX): 29486
Minor Trend - Up
Nature of trend - cyclic
Cycle Direction - Up
Current price movement- Price is near cycle bottom. if it fails to rise, it will start trending down. Closing above 29500 will indicate good chances of an up cycle. If it closes below 29200, it will indicate further fall. Right now it is almost at bottom of an intermediate cycle.
Open Position: Buy was recommended near market close yesterday
Strategy: Hold
2. SILVER (MCX):
Minor Trend - Up
Nature of trend - cyclic
Cycle Direction - Up
Current price movement- Price is near cycle bottom and if it fails to rise, it will start trending down. We mentioned yesterday that "If today it remains above 48500, it will be bullish." - and it was above that level and went up by about 3%!. Price is following now its up cycle.
Open Position: -
Strategy: Buy on dips near 49000
3. COPPER (MCX):
Minor Trend - Up
Nature of trend - cyclic
Cycle Direction - Up
Current price movement- Price is near cycle bottom and if it fails to rise, it will start trending down. It is very much near a cycle bottom.
Open Position: -
Strategy: Pullback expected. Safe to buy on dips near 450. Keep SL 448
*************************************
EQUITIES
=========
1. NIFTY:
Minor Trend - Up
Nature of Trend - Cyclic
Cycle Direction - Up
Expected upside till - 2nd week of Oct
Current price movement- Upward move is weakning
Open position - Short (Future sold at 5975) was closed yesterday near market closing at 5938.
Strategy - Sell future on rise near 6040.
2. NIKKEI:
Minor Trend - Consolidating since May 2013
Nature of trend - cyclic
Current Cycle Direction - Down
Current price movement- price approaching near a short term cycle bottom in a bigger down cycle.
Open position: -
Strategy: -
3. HANGSENG:
Minor Trend - Up
Nature of trend - cyclic
Cycle Direction - Down
Current price movement- down cycle, pullback may happen today
Strategy: Sell signal should be generated on a rise
*********
CURRENCIES:
==============
1. DOLLAR INDEX:
Minor Trend - Down
Nature of trend - cyclic
Cycle Direction - Down
Current price movement- There is a pullback which may take it to 80.8-81.2-82
Strategy:
2. EURUSD:
Minor Trend - Up
Nature of trend - cyclic
Cycle Direction - Up
Current price movement- Price is trending up, but correction is in place which may last 1-3 days.
Strategy: Buy on dips near 1.348
3. JPYUSD:
Minor Trend - Up
Nature of trend - cyclic
Cycle Direction - Up
Current price movement- Price is trending up and is about to come up from within a triangle. An upward breakout may take it to 1.065 and above. It was mentioned yesterday that "Price can also breakout above 1.032 without coming down", and that has happened.
Strategy: Buy on dips near 1.03
*********
COMMODITIES:
===============
1. GOLD (MCX): 29486
Minor Trend - Up
Nature of trend - cyclic
Cycle Direction - Up
Current price movement- Price is near cycle bottom. if it fails to rise, it will start trending down. Closing above 29500 will indicate good chances of an up cycle. If it closes below 29200, it will indicate further fall. Right now it is almost at bottom of an intermediate cycle.
Open Position: Buy was recommended near market close yesterday
Strategy: Hold
2. SILVER (MCX):
Minor Trend - Up
Nature of trend - cyclic
Cycle Direction - Up
Current price movement- Price is near cycle bottom and if it fails to rise, it will start trending down. We mentioned yesterday that "If today it remains above 48500, it will be bullish." - and it was above that level and went up by about 3%!. Price is following now its up cycle.
Open Position: -
Strategy: Buy on dips near 49000
3. COPPER (MCX):
Minor Trend - Up
Nature of trend - cyclic
Cycle Direction - Up
Current price movement- Price is near cycle bottom and if it fails to rise, it will start trending down. It is very much near a cycle bottom.
Open Position: -
Strategy: Pullback expected. Safe to buy on dips near 450. Keep SL 448
Monday, October 7, 2013
Long Term Entry Signals
Long Term Entry Signals from Cycle Trading System
I selected some leading indices, stocks, commodities, and currencies for testing this system's capability to identify major long term trend reversal points. During last 20 years, there were 34 major bottoms, and the system identified 33 out of these 34!
To Download the details: Click Here
I selected some leading indices, stocks, commodities, and currencies for testing this system's capability to identify major long term trend reversal points. During last 20 years, there were 34 major bottoms, and the system identified 33 out of these 34!
To Download the details: Click Here
Daily View - 7 Oct, Mon
BRIEF ANALYSIS FOR POSITIONAL TRADING
*************************************
EQUITIES
=========
1. NIFTY:
Minor Trend - Up
Nature of Trend - Cyclic
Cycle Direction - Up
Expected upside till - 2nd week of Oct
Current price movement- Upward move is weakning
Open position - Short (Future sold at 5975)
Strategy - Hold (Last price 5951)
2. NIKKEI:
Minor Trend - Consolidating since May 2013
Nature of trend - cyclic
Current Cycle Direction - Down
Current price movement- price near a short term cycle bottom in a bigger down cycle. Can expect a short pullback.
Open position - Short (at 14157)
Strategy: Exit signal at EOD price of 14024
3. HANGSENG:
Minor Trend - Up
Nature of trend - cyclic
Cycle Direction - Down
Current price movement- Entered downtrend last week
Strategy: Sell signal should be generated on a rise in 1-2 days
*********
CURRENCIES:
==============
1. DOLLAR INDEX:
Minor Trend - Down
Nature of trend - cyclic
Cycle Direction - Down
Current price movement- There is a pullback which may take it to 80.8-81.2-82
Strategy:
2. EURUSD:
Minor Trend - Up
Nature of trend - cyclic
Cycle Direction - Up
Current price movement- Price is trending up, but correction is in place which may last 1-3 days.
Strategy: Buy on dips near 1.348
3. JPYUSD:
Minor Trend - Up
Nature of trend - cyclic
Cycle Direction - Up
Current price movement- Price is trending up and is about to come up from within a triangle. An upward breakout may take it to 1.065 and above.
Strategy: Wait for a buying signal on dips. Price can also breakout above 1.032 without coming down.
*********
COMMODITIES:
===============
1. GOLD (MCX):
Minor Trend - Up
Nature of trend - cyclic
Cycle Direction - Up
Current price movement- Price is cycle bottom. if it fails to rise, it will start trending down. Closing above 30300 will indicate good chances of an up cycle. If it closes below 29600, it will indicate further fall.
Open Position: SL hit
Strategy:
2. SILVER (MCX):
Minor Trend - Up
Nature of trend - cyclic
Cycle Direction - Up
Current price movement- Price is near cycle bottom and if it fails to rise, it will start trending down. If today it remains above 48500, it will be bullish.
Open Position: -
Strategy:
3. COPPER (MCX):
Minor Trend - Up
Nature of trend - cyclic
Cycle Direction - Up
Current price movement- Price is near cycle bottom and if it fails to rise, it will start trending down. Below 456, uptrend is under threat.
Open Position: -
Strategy: Pullback expected. Safe to buy on dips near 446
*************************************
EQUITIES
=========
1. NIFTY:
Minor Trend - Up
Nature of Trend - Cyclic
Cycle Direction - Up
Expected upside till - 2nd week of Oct
Current price movement- Upward move is weakning
Open position - Short (Future sold at 5975)
Strategy - Hold (Last price 5951)
2. NIKKEI:
Minor Trend - Consolidating since May 2013
Nature of trend - cyclic
Current Cycle Direction - Down
Current price movement- price near a short term cycle bottom in a bigger down cycle. Can expect a short pullback.
Open position - Short (at 14157)
Strategy: Exit signal at EOD price of 14024
3. HANGSENG:
Minor Trend - Up
Nature of trend - cyclic
Cycle Direction - Down
Current price movement- Entered downtrend last week
Strategy: Sell signal should be generated on a rise in 1-2 days
*********
CURRENCIES:
==============
1. DOLLAR INDEX:
Minor Trend - Down
Nature of trend - cyclic
Cycle Direction - Down
Current price movement- There is a pullback which may take it to 80.8-81.2-82
Strategy:
2. EURUSD:
Minor Trend - Up
Nature of trend - cyclic
Cycle Direction - Up
Current price movement- Price is trending up, but correction is in place which may last 1-3 days.
Strategy: Buy on dips near 1.348
3. JPYUSD:
Minor Trend - Up
Nature of trend - cyclic
Cycle Direction - Up
Current price movement- Price is trending up and is about to come up from within a triangle. An upward breakout may take it to 1.065 and above.
Strategy: Wait for a buying signal on dips. Price can also breakout above 1.032 without coming down.
*********
COMMODITIES:
===============
1. GOLD (MCX):
Minor Trend - Up
Nature of trend - cyclic
Cycle Direction - Up
Current price movement- Price is cycle bottom. if it fails to rise, it will start trending down. Closing above 30300 will indicate good chances of an up cycle. If it closes below 29600, it will indicate further fall.
Open Position: SL hit
Strategy:
2. SILVER (MCX):
Minor Trend - Up
Nature of trend - cyclic
Cycle Direction - Up
Current price movement- Price is near cycle bottom and if it fails to rise, it will start trending down. If today it remains above 48500, it will be bullish.
Open Position: -
Strategy:
3. COPPER (MCX):
Minor Trend - Up
Nature of trend - cyclic
Cycle Direction - Up
Current price movement- Price is near cycle bottom and if it fails to rise, it will start trending down. Below 456, uptrend is under threat.
Open Position: -
Strategy: Pullback expected. Safe to buy on dips near 446
Saturday, October 5, 2013
Update - Long Term View
Long Term View - Update
DOLLAR INDEX: The trend is up though the price cycle is moving down. Below 79.7, it may fall further up to 76/75.5. Long term exit signal was generated in May 2013 near 84. There is no clear cycle bottom. If price remain above 80, it may reach 83 in 1-2 months.
Friday, October 4, 2013
Long Term Views - Update: 4-Oct-13
LONG TERM VIEWS - Update: 4-Oct-13
COMMODITIES:
=============
GOLD (MCX): Trend is up but price is correcting and this fall may continue till Oct-Nov. Investors should wait till a clear cycle bottom is formed. Price will take support at 28800, below which it can fall to 26000, 23000. If the price does not rise from current correction, it will turn into a down trend.
SILVER (MCX): It is in long term uptrend and intermediate term downtrend. Below 30000, the long term uptrend will end. Its current upward cycle started in Jun from a low of 38536. The current upward cycle is expected to last at least till Jan 2014. But if it falls below 47000, this upward cycle may end. Currently price is correcting and this phase may last till September to December. Last investment buying signal was in Jun 2013. Investors should wait for a buying signal.
COPPER (MCX): It is in long term as well as intermediate term uptrend. Below 380, the intermediate term uptrend will end. Its current upward cycle started in April 2013 from a low of 367. The current upward cycle is expected to last at least till Jan 2014. But if it falls below 420, this upward cycle may end. Currently price is correcting and this phase may last till September to December. Investors should wait for a buying signal.
EQUITIES:
==========
Its current cycle started up in Dec 2011 from a low of 4538. Currently the cycle is in downward move. The current downward cycle is expected to last till Oct-Dec 2013. Currently price is pulling back following upward swing of a short term cycle. Investors should wait for a buying signal.
HANGSENG: Trend is up but more upside seems limited.
NIKKEI: Since Nov 2012 it was trending up untill Mar 2013. Since then it has been consolidating at higher levels. Its up trending has finished and more upside seems difficult. Price is moving in cyclic form and making new high (above 15942.6) would be difficult unless price again starts trending up. Current cycle is at its peak and its down cycle has a length of about two years (till 2015). Prices are also following a short term cycle which reversed from its top last month and may take about a month to reach its bottom.
CURRENCIES:
==============
DOLLAR INDEX: The trend is up though the price cycle is moving down. Below 79.7, it may fall further up to 76/75.5.
EURUSD: It has started trending up and there is no indication of how long this uptrend may continue. Avoid short selling.
JPYUSD: After falling big from 1.3 to below 1, it is now consolidating and the major cycle is moving up from bottom. Upward cycle may continue till Mar 2014.
COMMODITIES:
=============
GOLD (MCX): Trend is up but price is correcting and this fall may continue till Oct-Nov. Investors should wait till a clear cycle bottom is formed. Price will take support at 28800, below which it can fall to 26000, 23000. If the price does not rise from current correction, it will turn into a down trend.
SILVER (MCX): It is in long term uptrend and intermediate term downtrend. Below 30000, the long term uptrend will end. Its current upward cycle started in Jun from a low of 38536. The current upward cycle is expected to last at least till Jan 2014. But if it falls below 47000, this upward cycle may end. Currently price is correcting and this phase may last till September to December. Last investment buying signal was in Jun 2013. Investors should wait for a buying signal.
COPPER (MCX): It is in long term as well as intermediate term uptrend. Below 380, the intermediate term uptrend will end. Its current upward cycle started in April 2013 from a low of 367. The current upward cycle is expected to last at least till Jan 2014. But if it falls below 420, this upward cycle may end. Currently price is correcting and this phase may last till September to December. Investors should wait for a buying signal.
EQUITIES:
==========
Its current cycle started up in Dec 2011 from a low of 4538. Currently the cycle is in downward move. The current downward cycle is expected to last till Oct-Dec 2013. Currently price is pulling back following upward swing of a short term cycle. Investors should wait for a buying signal.
HANGSENG: Trend is up but more upside seems limited.
NIKKEI: Since Nov 2012 it was trending up untill Mar 2013. Since then it has been consolidating at higher levels. Its up trending has finished and more upside seems difficult. Price is moving in cyclic form and making new high (above 15942.6) would be difficult unless price again starts trending up. Current cycle is at its peak and its down cycle has a length of about two years (till 2015). Prices are also following a short term cycle which reversed from its top last month and may take about a month to reach its bottom.
CURRENCIES:
==============
DOLLAR INDEX: The trend is up though the price cycle is moving down. Below 79.7, it may fall further up to 76/75.5.
EURUSD: It has started trending up and there is no indication of how long this uptrend may continue. Avoid short selling.
JPYUSD: After falling big from 1.3 to below 1, it is now consolidating and the major cycle is moving up from bottom. Upward cycle may continue till Mar 2014.
Daily View
COMMODITIES
(MCX)
|
|
GOLD
|
SILVER
|
COPPER
|
|
EOD Price
|
INR 30204
|
INR 48653
|
INR 454.4
|
|
Minor Trend
|
|
|
|
|
·
Trend Direction
|
Up
|
Up
|
Up
|
|
·
Nature
|
Cyclic
|
Cyclic
|
Cyclic
|
|
o If
Cyclic – cycle direction
|
Rising
|
Rising
|
Rising
|
|
·
Current position
|
Near cycle bottom
|
Near cycle bottom
|
Near cycle bottom
|
|
·
Expected duration
|
Uptrend may last 2 w
|
|
|
|
·
Expected Range
|
|
|
|
|
o Downside
|
29800 - 29600 – 29050 – 29000
|
45000 – 43000
|
450 – 445
|
|
o Upside
|
30370 – 31300
|
49000 – 50700
|
457-460 – 463 – 467 – 472
|
|
·
Threat
|
Uptrend can weaken below 30540 – 29800 – 29600
|
Correction may convert to a down trend
|
|
|
TRADING
|
|
|
|
|
New Signal
|
Buy on dips near 30000, SL 29600
|
-
|
-
|
|
Open Position
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|
Analysis
|
Price is at cycle bottom which started in July, and if it fails to
rise, it will start trending down. Closing above 30250 will indicate good chances
of a up cycle. If it closes below 29600, it will indicate further fall.
|
Price is near cycle bottom and if it fails to rise, it will start
trending down. If today it remains above 48500, it will be bullish
|
Price is near cycle bottom and if it fails to rise, it will start
trending down. Below 456, uptrend is under threat
|
BRIEF ANALYSIS FOR POSITIONAL TRADING
*************************************
EQUITIES
=========
1. NIFTY:
Minor Trend - Up
Nature of Trend - Cyclic
Cycle Direction - Up
Expected upside till - 2nd week of Oct
Current price movement- Upward move is weakning
Open position - Short
Strategy - Hold
2. NIKKEI:
Minor Trend - Consolidating
Nature of trend - cyclic
Cycle Direction - Down
Current price movement- Entered downtrend yesterday
Open position - Short
Strategy: Hold
3. HANGSENG:
Minor Trend - Up
Nature of trend - cyclic
Cycle Direction - Down
Current price movement- Entered downtrend last week
Strategy: Sell signal should be generated on a rise in 1-2 days
*********
CURRENCIES:
==============
1. DOLLAR INDEX:
Minor Trend - Down
Nature of trend - cyclic
Cycle Direction - Down
Current price movement- Entered downtrend last week
Strategy: Sell signal may be generated on a spike
2. EURUSD:
Minor Trend - Up
Nature of trend - cyclic
Cycle Direction - Up
Current price movement- Price is trending up
Strategy: Avoid trading
3. JPYUSD:
Minor Trend - Up
Nature of trend - cyclic
Cycle Direction - Up
Current price movement- Price is at top of cycle
Strategy: Sell signal may be generated in few days
4. USDCAD:
Minor Trend - Up
Nature of trend - cyclic
Cycle Direction - Up
Current price movement- Price is at bottom of cycle
Strategy: Wait for a clear signal
*********
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