Shifting to new home

This blog is now shifted to - www.trikaalcapital.com.

I am closing the coverage of long term forecasts e.g. gold, DJI, crude, and USDINR and it will be now available on subscription.

Launching regular advisory letters for investors and traders in S&P 500, gold, EURUSD, and RTS.
 

Exit Indian Equities

Primary trend on daily Nifty charts has turned down and even in longer term weekly charts it may turn down. Investors should book profits and should exit. Entry recommendation was given when Nifty was near 7980 (Link). Wait for next entry signal.
Though there was an early signal last week but I was waiting for more confirmation, my mistake.

Fed will hike rate? Complete Analysis

Conclusion: No, it will not hike rate.

Analysis: The key reasons of not hiking rate will be poor job growth and not so robust economy. Additionally, the impact of a rate hike will create unmanageable economic turmoil.
I am not elaborating as so many experts have already written so much about these topics.

Currency Wars are Heating Up

25 central banks have lowered rates since the start of this year, some more than once, according to data from CentralBankRates. It is one way of engaging in currency war, and it's not new, US did it with QE in 2008, continued for several years, then several other countries either devalued their currencies or cut interest rate. ECB and Japan launched massive QE programs.

News headlines of currency devaluations in 2015 -

• Turkmenistan - Jan, 2015 - Energy-rich Turkmenistan devalues currency against dollar ...
• Belarus - Jan, 2015 - Belarus devalues its ruble by 7%
• Nigeria - Feb, 2015 - Naira devalued again, trades at N198 to dollar
• Azerbaizan - Feb, 2015 - Azerbaijan devalues currency by one-third amid oil price ...
• Venezuela - Feb, 2015 - Currency Devaluation Baffles Shortage-plagued Venezuelans
• Vietnam - May 2015 - SBV lowers dong's value by 1% in second devaluation of 2015
• Angola - Jun, 2015 - Angola Central Bank Devalues Currency as Oil Slide Hits Revenue
• Egypt - 6 July 2015 - Egypt's currency devalued in attempt to encourage investment 

The major countries that cut interest rates in 2015 (and the number of times they did it):

• Australia - 2
• Canada - 2
• China - 3
• Denmark - 1
• Egypt - 1
• Hungary - 5
• India - 3
• New Zealand - 1
• Norway - 1
• Russia - 4
• South Korea - 2
• Sweden - 3
• Switzerland - 1
• Thailand - 1
• Turkey - 2
• Israel -1
• Indonesia - 1
• Romania - 4

Countries have become significantly more aggressive on currency front since this year. Future is definitely going to be more volatile in coming years. All who deal with currencies, energy, or metals will see turbulent times ahead. More on this in next update...

USDINR in long term downtrend

USDINR is now in a long term down trend. It may fall to 61.5/60 within this year.